This blog is littered with proof Facebook is dying. The reason most Media Publications are silent is if it dies they have less news to write. Mashable has their whole business at risk. VC's will flee Social Technology Companies if this happens. Workers, Entrepreneurs and I.P. will run to where the highest potential for gain is. This wouldn't be the case if the hype machine had not started. If people who are smart cunning self promoters but only average marketers in real life, hadn't jumped in early with books, and twitter followings, and Brands and Agencies getting suckered into thinking Social Media Marketing was ever going to be bigger than TV or even Digital.
Would you read a book (never mind buy) by Brian Solis or Chris Brogan focusing on the next big wave in Marketing if they do so just 2 years from now knowing Facebook is flailing and Brands have decided there was no home run, that it was just ancillary sales being added and that all the hype for Brand Pages and Communities just didn't pan out? Would you hire them as a CMO even? Probably not.
What if the Social Influence companies like Klout or Edelman also don't deliver. Klout goes away. Does this impact Edelman's non-social line of business if their clients feel they were mis-led in a major way (not on purpose btw). How would you feel about the quality of their advice? This is no different than the stock market people. When a brokerage house bets wrong and their client's lose money, investors flee to who got it right vs saying 'Well next time you will get it right'.
Three key articles here are worth reading:
First is by the wicked smart Ben Kunz (@benkunz) of Media Associates on his blog Thought Gadgets: LINK
He discusses why Facebook will die using history of networks dying for his thesis.
Next is Business Insider who shows a loss of users in key markets like the US as a sign of something is wrong. LINK (thank you Chris Baccus for this article)
You should compare that to my last blog post. LINK
Lastly is Media Post also bringing up a flagging network. LINK
In April I proved the network had seen over a 30% drop in use per person per day. I also guest posted on Waxing Unlyrical showing how anyone can use math to figure this stuff out: LINK
As a Brand what do you do. Do you blindly trust the Social Agencies, Social Media Talking Heads, Mashables, VC's and Goldman Sachs that Facebook will be supreme in commerce and marketing to make you money when really the goal is for them to make money, when they don't give a flying shit about you? Or do you believe the smart people who show you over and over that this is not happening now nor will it happen in the future.
Remember once again Class Repeat after Me:
Social Media is not Media nor Marketing! It is a Revolution in Interpersonal Communication Technologies. Ad Support will fail Marketing will fail! Proof is your cell phone! Do your calls get interrupted by a word from your sponsor? NO! You pay through the nose for the service because the value is communication! And that is where these networks should focus. On bring value to consumers and showing they need a service and will pay for the service vs gimmicks, smoke and mirrors, and cutesy games.
Yes I can be smug. I have been screaming about this for over a year. So dear clients of the Agencies like Virtue and Likeable Media I am available for hire. I will not steer you wrong.
As you all know I hate Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg. I find them slimy unethical weasels who would rather exploit people over and over in chasing a buck than care about their users whom without they have no network! Es Stupido!